The direction of time’s arrow

Once again, the target of our arrow of criticism is the estimable New York Times, and their estimable Charles M Blow, whose op-ed contributions are always interesting but almost equally often decorated with sadly defective graphics. In this example, we have a graph that is wrong in at least five ways. Can you spot them? Here is the graph.

The subject of the graph is the change in approval rating of President Obama following the killing of Osama bin Laden, for various selected groups. It is certainly possible to extract the information for any given group from the chart, especially because the artist kindly prints all the numbers, but in this regard it is little better than a table. And a graph should be more than a table, it should use your native perception of form to make a point.

The first error is the use of space. As is often the case with Mr Blow, the graph occupies a remarkable amount of vertical space, considering the modest data it contains. For this reason, you may have to expand the graph just to be able read its contents. As we will show, these data can be plotted in much less space, with an increase in clarity.

The second thing that is wrong with the chart is the selection of colors. Since before and after are depicted with color, we would like a strong contrast between the two. Instead we get a weak difference in brightness and saturation of two greens. Quick, tell me whether any subgroup showed a decrease in approval! I suspect you had to scrutinize each pair of bars, carefully ensuring that the darker one was shorter.

The third thing that is wrong is that the bar depicting “after” is about twice as wide as the “before” bar. Thus the area of the “after” bar is much larger, even if there were no change in approval. This is potentially confusing, ad certainly biased against the before figure.

The fourth thing that is wrong is that the bars are overlapping. This makes it harder to see the length of the “before” bar.

The fifth thing that is wrong is that the graph fails to exploit our native sense of how to depict an increase over time. By convention, in graphs time is always shown as proceeding from left to right. And positive quantities are always shown as increasing from bottom to top. The horizontal arrangement of the chart, and the overlapping of the before and after bars, fails to observe either of these conventions.

Another way to be absolutely sure that the viewer understands the direction of time is to actually show it as an arrow. This is especially appropriate when only two points in time are involved.

Correcting all of these errors, we produce the following chart.

While this chart should require no explanation, I will make a few comments on design. First, unlike the New York Times, I do not have an army of graphologists to tweak my product to perfection. This is a first draft, created in a couple of minutes, and could doubtless be improved. But it clearly shows that every group showed an increase, and the relative size of each increase. In each bar, time goes left to right, and approval increases from bottom to top, just as we expect. The arrows reinforce each trend with a strong graphic element, while the single green bar shows the absolute values of approval, and ties each arrow to its group name. We omit the actual numbers, but provide a 50% line for guidance.

My chart makes all the essential points, and does so in a way that is immediate and transparent. Mr. Blows chart has a certain graphical panache to it, and that is not a bad thing. But panache should never replace clarity.

Reference:

 New York Times
The Bin Laden Bounce
By CHARLES M. BLOW
Published: May 6, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/07/opinion/07blow.html
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